(ENN) A powerful computer has come to the aid of astrophysicists on a quest to predict the impact solar storms will have on communications satellites and power supplies, British scientists reported Wednesday. Explosions on the surface of the sun cause solar storms that stream out into space, sometimes in the direction of Earth.
The storms affect the magnetic composition of the ionosphere, which in turn disrupts radio signals, causes electrical power blackouts and surges in oil pipelines. As well, the heat from solar storms causes the Earth's atmosphere to expand. On occasion, low orbiting satellites "re-enter" the expanded atmosphere and burn up. "Using this new computer we are able to develop models that can be used to warn telecom network operators, power suppliers and radio operators about the effects of solar storms - they can then take action to minimize damage," said Alan Aylward, a researcher at the United Kingdom's Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council, in a statement. The computer, named MIRACLE (Multi-Institutional Research Astrophysics Computing), can perform 15 billion calculations a second and was developed by scientists at the research council.
When the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, a research satellite jointly operated
by the European Space Agency and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration,
observes an Earth-bound solar storm, the computer models take over to predict
its impact. The computer also makes it possible to investigate how stars and
planetary systems form and predict the fate of giant stars several times hotter
than the sun, the scientists report. It also enables to the astrophysicists
to model other planets. "It used to take seven Earth days to model one Jupiter
day, MIRACLE should allow us to run models in 'real time,'" said Steve Miller,
a research center scientist. "It will also let us model the giant planets that
have been discovered orbiting nearby stars, which leads us into whole new areas
of research."
Date: Mon, 25 Oct 1999 12:00:31 -0600
To: National Oceanographics and Atmospheric
Administration swo@sec.noaa.gov
From: "Patrick S. McIntosh"
pmcintosh@solar.stanford.edu
Subject:
Major XRay Solar Flare Alert MAJOR FLARE BUILDUP
October 25, 1999 1800 UT SOLAR ALERT HELIOSYNOPTICS, BOULDER, COLORADO
MAJOR FLARE BUILDUP REGION 8739 S13 E05 RAPID SPOT GROWTH WITH DEVELOPING DELTA(S) IN CENTER OF MATURE LARGE SPOT GROUP.
LARGE-SCALE SHEAR HAS BEEN PRESENT AT THIS LOCATION FOR PAST 60 DAYS. EXPECT THIS REGION MAY REACH SUPER-REGION STATUS IN NEXT TWO DAYS.
CLASS M5 OR GREATER X-RAY FLARE EXPECTED. MAJOR MASS EJECTIONS EXPECTED LOCATION IDEAL FOR FAST TRANSIT OF CME TO EARTH ALL MAJOR FLARE EFFECTS EXPECTED
Patrick S. McIntosh
HelioSynoptics and McIntosh Squared Graphics
3885 Paseo del Prado
Boulder, CO 80301-1527
303-444-5880 FAX: 303-440-0102
(NASA) While it's not quite Halloween, a radio astronomer struck that chord when he described astrophysicists' fascination with gamma-ray bursts. "We're interested in dead and dying things," said Dr. Dale Frail of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Socorro, N.M. "Our highest ambition is to know who that dying thing is."
Frail spoke during the third day of the week-long Fifth biennial Huntsville Gamma Ray Burst Symposium. Gamma-ray bursts are mysterious flashes of high-energy radiation that come from the edge of the observable universe. Since their discovery by gamma-ray detectors designed to watch for nuclear weapons tests in space, scientists have tried to find counterparts in other parts of the spectrum so they might figure out what causes the bursts.
Astrophysicists engage in "forensic science," Frail said, when they study gamma-ray bursts because they look at the remains without having ever seen the victim alive. Frail works in radio astronomy, the end of the spectrum that comes into play when the "corpse is cold and still," volunteered one member of the audience. By comparison, scientists using instruments like the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) are "interested in hearing the death rattle," Frail joked.
The death rattles as detected in various parts of the electromagnetic spectrum are all anyone can examine so far in the bid to uncover what causes such horrible deaths out at the edges of the known universe.
The death rattle and last gasp are mostly what scientists have to go on since it's impossible to bring major observatories to bear on a burst as it occurs, and far too much to hope that a telescope will be observing something when a burst happens to go off nearby. While BATSE and a few other instruments can record the gamma-ray flash of a burst, the rest of the astronomy community have to work with the afterglow - if a counterpart is found in other parts of the spectrum - which can last hours or a year.
Observations and discoveries over the last three years have made gamma-ray bursts front page news, reshaping our perception of how they fit into the grand scheme of the universe. Later this month, more than 200 scientists will gather to discuss their findings and their plans for unraveling more about these mysterious burst of energy. "The exciting thing is that we will have scientists from lots of different astronomical fields, not just high-energy astrophysics," said Dr. Valerie Connaughton, a member of the organizing committee for the 5th Huntsville Gamma Ray Burst Symposium. "We also have optical [visible light] and radio astronomers planning to attend." Gamma-ray bursts have puzzled scientists since they were discovered in the late 1960s by satellites watching for nuclear weapons tests in space. They recorded bursts of radiation in gamma rays, the highest part of the electromagnetic spectrum, but not lower down. And the bursts appeared to be coming from outside the solar system. Their appearances and locations were random and not associated with any known object.
Scientists analyze what occurs during a gamma-ray burst
The crime: catastrophic explosions deep within the Universe. The clues: emissions ranging all around the spectrum, from gamma-rays to radio waves. The motive: Unknown.
Determining what happens during a gamma-ray burst reads like a detective story. Scientists are hot on the trail of unraveling the mystery, using telescopes that are far more complex than Sherlock Holmes' simple magnifying glass.
Every aspect of a burst, from the electromagnetic emissions to the intensity of the explosion, tells its own tale. By figuring out how all these different "points-of-view" fit into the main event, scientists hope to determine what really happens. A gamma-ray burst detected on Jan. 23, 1999 - GRB 990123 - has provided scientists with even more clues to help interpret the postmortem examinations.
"This burst makes us ask two questions," says Michael Briggs, a University of Alabama at Huntsville research scientist working at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. "First, what caused the initial emission of visible light, and second, was that light beamed?"
These questions are addressed in a paper co-authored by Briggs and Dr. Titus J. Galama, a University of Amsterdam astrophysicist, along with colleagues from other institutions around the world. The paper, "Spectral Energy Distributions and Light Curves of GRB 990123 and its Afterglow," is due to be published in the April 1 issue of the journal Nature. This paper is one of a series to be published by Nature and Science., in which different teams of scientists take turns inspecting the gamma-ray burst with a close and careful eye.
"The scientists discovered that an S-shaped structure appears on the sun in advance of a violent eruption. The S is called a sigmoid, a twisting of the sun's magnetic field."
I know in my gut this is the SAME 'S-swirl' that appears in the centers of our CropCircles!
(See ilyes article on the "S-swirl" on her page at:
http://www.cropcircleconnector.com/ilyes/P20t.html
It's a 'plasma cue', in the Circles, it's where the 'Call' from The CircleMakers for Earth's Energies originates (in the 'center' of a Formation). It's the BlackHole/WhiteHole 'seed' that erupts thru into THIS density from 'out there'. In both the Sun and The Circles, t's a presage of things to come, of MAJOR Energies coming together. On the Sun, they foretell a CME; in a Circle, the Formation is 'built' (literally) around it.
This is most exciting confirmation! :-)
- ilyes
(ENN) By John Roach As if Y2K weren't enough, there's another millennial menace to dread: solar storms.
Scientists expect a violent solar storm—perhaps the worst in a century—to strike sometime between now and January 2001. It may fry the insides of satellites, knock out power supplies, and generally wreak havoc on a technology-dependent society.
It will all start with a coronal mass ejection—a violent discharge of electrically charged gas from the sun's outer atmosphere. The explosion will hurl some ten billion tons of gas into space at speeds up to a million miles (1.6 million kilometers) an hour. Four days and 93 million miles (150 million kilometers) later, the storm will tear through Earth's magnetic field.
WORRIES AND WARNINGS
Solar storms have struck hard before. On March 13, 1989, a solar storm caused a power outage in Quebec, Canada, that left six million people without electricity. Last year a smaller storm was blamed for bringing down the Galaxy 4 satellite, halting news transmissions and pagers across North America for days. Fortunately, NASA space scientists announced on March 9 that they have found a way to forecast solar storms a few days in advance, giving satellite and power companies time to prepare for potential trouble.
The scientists discovered that an S-shaped structure appears on the sun in advance of a violent eruption. The S is called a sigmoid, a twisting of the sun's magnetic field. "Early warnings of approaching solar storms could prove useful to power companies, the communications industry, and organizations that operate spacecraft, including NASA," said a statement from George Withbroew, a NASA scientist. "This is a major step forward in understanding these tremendous storms."
With advanced warning, satellite companies can turn off high voltages on their satellites before the plasma cloud hits them, and power companies can briefly turn off parts of the grid until the surge of current passes.
A paper on the S-shaped sigmoids was published in the March 15 issue of Geophysical Research Letters.
'S' marks the spot of a coronal mass ejection on the sun
March 9, 1999 Web posted at: 3:59 p.m. EST (2059 GMT) WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Scientists on Tuesday announced a possible new method to forecast the most turbulent solar storms in advance, based on a unique "S"-shaped feature on the surface on the sun. The explosions, as powerful as billions of nuclear explosions, can disrupt radio communications and electrical power systems on the Earth and satellites orbiting above. Using pictures from the Japanese satellite Yohkoh, researchers frequently detected the tightly coiled energy patterns just before a solar storm erupted. "'S' marks the spot," said Dr. Alphonse Sterling of Computational Physics Inc., of Fairfax, Virginia, in a statement. "We have found a strong correlation between an S-shaped pattern on the sun, called a sigmoid, and the likelihood that an ejection will occur from that region within days. Each sigmoid is like a loaded gun that we now know has a high probability of going off." The S-shaped sigmoids were found in the sun's southern hemisphere. The tightly coiled energy frameworks seemed reversed like the number "2" in the northern half. Researchers believe the signature "S" shape is caused by twisted magnetic fields on the surface of the sun. Solar storms, also known as coronal mass ejections, are huge clouds of charged particles that periodically explode from the sun. The eruptions spew as much as 10 billion tons of electrically charged gas out into the solar system at speeds up to 1 to 2 million miles per hour. Typically, a solar storm takes about four days to travel the 93 million miles from the sun to the Earth. The clouds of charged gas that make up the storm can damage sensitive microelectronics aboard satellites and also overload electrical power grid on the Earth. In 1989 a solar storm caused a blackout in eastern Canada. Many scientists predict similar electrical turbulence next year, as such sun storms seem to occur in 11-year cycles. Should the high-energy particles "flow gangbusters" through an unprepared power system, it could wind up with "fried green transformers," quipped physics professor Dr. Richard Canfield from Montana State University in Bozeman, Montana. More benignly, solar storms can stimulate heightened activity of the Northern and Southern Lights when the cloud of charged particles comes into contact with the Earth's own magnetic field. In recent years, scientists have used solar telescopes like the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory to monitor the sun for storms. Such instruments can detect them as they occur. In the future, using indicators like the "S"-shaped sigmoid feature, solar scientists could predict accurately the coronal disruptions before they occur. "This discovery of a way to possibly provide early warning of approaching solar storms could prove useful to power companies, the communications industry and organizations that operate spacecraft, including NASA," George Witbrowe of NASA said in a statement. "This is a major step forward in our understanding of these tremendous storms."
