Sun May Pick Up Where Y2K Leaves Off...11/11/99
By Jonathan Lipman

WASHINGTON (States News Service) - A technology problem as potentially vexing as the Y2K computer glitch may bedevil  cell phones, pagers and electrical power grids throughout the coming year, as the 11-year sunspot cycle peaks in mid-2000, the  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Wednesday.

Solar storms send huge streams of charged particles toward Earth, and at their strongest, they can punch both through the magnetic field and atmosphere that usually protect the planet. Satellites, farther outside of Earth's protection, are even more vulnerable to the disruptive effects of both charged particles.

"We are more vulnerable today because we have more satellites flying," said NOAA Administrator D. James Baker. "All of these will have some vulnerability to solar flares."

NOAA's new scale involves ranking storms from S-1 to S-5, with the highest number being the most threatening. Fifty S-1  storms are expected in a typical 11-year cycle and would have "minor impacts on high-frequency radio in the polar regions."

An S-5 storm, by contrast, would make radio communication impossible at Earth's poles, effectively destroy some satellites and seriously damage others by frying their on-board computer. It would also deliver radiation doses equivalent to a chest X-ray to passengers in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes. Less than one S-5 event occurs per cycle on average.

"We can expect six to 12 major storms during the three-year period centered on the year 2000," Baker said.

Underlining the potential need for NOAA's plans, the agency's Space Environment Center issued a report Tuesday of a minor "geomagnetic" or solar storm that started Sunday and was associated with a coronal hole now rotating across the face of the sun.

Coronal holes, as shown in the image at the top of this story, are gaps in the sun's outer layer, or corona, which usually acts as a  blanket to absorb much of the charged-particle radiation emitted by the sun's inner layers.

A gap in the corona allows high-speed winds of particles to stream into space. If those particles shoot out in the direction of Earth, they cause electromagnetic disturbances that can affect satellites and power generation systems.

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