Recent development

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 20. Solar wind speed ranged between 341 and 379 km/sec.

Solar flare activity was moderate. Solar flux was 210.3, the planetary A index was 8 (3-hour K indices: 1013 3222, Boulder K indices: 1112 2211). Region 8906 was quiet and rotated off the visible disk early today. Region 8909 decayed and was quiet, the region is spotless early on March 21. Region 8910 developed further and has a strong magnetic delta inside the very large main penumbra. Major flares, including an X flare, are possible. Region 8913 developed at a moderate pace and could produce minor M class flares. Region 8915 was quiet and stable. Region 8916 developed further and could generate minor M class flares. Region 8917 developed further and could host an M class flare. Region 8918 is still developing fairly quickly and has minor M class flaring potential. Region 8919 decayed into spotless plage. New region 8920 emerged in the northeast quadrant. New region 8921 rotated partly into view at the southeast limb.

Flares and CMEs

A total of 9 C flares and 2 M flares were recorded on March 20. Region 8910 produced a C2.6 flare at 07:02, a C8.4 flare at 10:59, a C2.1 flare at 18:16 and an impulsive M2.4/2B flare at 16:44 UTC. Region 8918 generated a C2.7 flare at 14:58 UTC. The most interesting event of the day was an M2.2/2B flare at 08:34 UTC. It was accompanied by moderately strong type II and IV sweeps and an impressive coronal mass ejection off the southeast limb. Region 8921 or another nearby region was the source of the event.

A filament eruption began in the southwest quadrant at 09:48 UTC and moved eastwards to the central meridian. Another filament eruption in the same area was triggered by a sub flare in region 8909 at 12:34 UTC.

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1-C2 level.

Coronal holes

The large coronal hole that has been around for several months has split into three smaller coronal holes. One is in the northern hemisphere and was in a geoeffective position on March 19, another (fairly small and closing because of development in region 8913) is in the southern hemisphere and was in a geoeffective position on March 20. The third, and largest remaining part, is trans equatorial and should rotate into a geoeffective position on March 21-22.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 21. A coronal hole related disturbance is likely to start on March 22 and could cause unsettled to active intervals until March 25, occasional minor storm intervals are possible. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair.

Mitch Battros
Producer - Earth Changes TV
http://www.earthchangesTV.com