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By Lew Gramer - Meteorbs News
As noted
below, C/2001 A2 (LINEAR) has brightened significantly.
It is now clear that this is not an outburst in the classic
sense. If it was, the comet would have faded by now. It
also seems unlikely that the nucleus has broken up.
There
has been no specific evidence to support that conclusion.
Rather, as noted below as one of the possible explanations,
I now believe that a major vent, not previously exposed
to sunlight, has opened up (or moved into the sunlight via
precession of the rotation of the nucleus). If this is true,
this comet may well reach naked-eye brightness. The comet
is currently (by my estimate) magnitude 6.7.
If it
now followed a standard formula (perhaps unlikely), it would
reach about magnitude 4.0-4.5 in June. If it happens, it
will be a nice treat. Although don't expect a long bright
tail. This comet appears to be dust-poor so the tail is
likely to be faint.
A word
of warning...if it is a major vent that has caused this
activity, it can shut down as quickly as it turned on. Don't
be surprised if there is a sudden drop in brightness at
some point.
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